Requesting a rare earth quote from a Chinese supplier is an education in regulatory archaeology. In February 2026, direct quotation requests for thulium metal and scandium oxide from established Chinese manufacturers produced responses that reveal far more about the export licensing system than any official MOFCOM guidance document.
The headline numbers: thulium metal can be quoted, shipped, and delivered in approximately three weeks — if the buyer accepts 3N purity (99.9%) and the element’s Announcement No. 57 controls remain suspended. Scandium oxide at 4N purity (99.99%) requires approximately four months from initial quote to delivery, with the timeline driven almost entirely by certification and licensing under the never-suspended Announcement No. 18 controls.
These are not outlier experiences. They reflect the structural reality of two elements sitting at different positions within China’s regulatory architecture.
Thulium: three weeks, but with constraints
Thulium occupies an unusual position. It was newly added to the export control list in October 2025 by Announcement No. 61, but those controls were suspended just one month later by Announcement No. 70, effective November 9, 2025. During the suspension window — which runs until November 28, 2026 — thulium exports do not require a MOFCOM licence.
This makes thulium one of the fastest rare earths to procure from China at present. Suppliers who responded to February 2026 inquiries quoted delivery timelines of approximately three weeks, encompassing production scheduling, quality testing, packaging, and international freight.
The binding constraint is not time but purity. Multiple suppliers independently confirmed that thulium metal cannot reliably reach 4N purity (99.99%). The practical ceiling is 3N (99.9%), with 3N5 (99.95%) available from select smelters at significant premium. This limitation is physical, not regulatory — thulium’s separation from adjacent lanthanides (erbium, ytterbium) in the ionic clay extraction process introduces co-precipitation impurities that are exceptionally difficult to remove beyond the 3N threshold.
For buyers requiring 4N thulium, the options are limited: Stanford Advanced Materials and a small number of Western specialty refiners offer 99.99% thulium metal, but at retail premiums of 10–30x over the Chinese 3N price.
Scandium: four months through the licensing maze
Scandium tells a fundamentally different story. Under MOFCOM Announcement No. 18 of 2025, scandium exports require a licence — and No. 18 has never been suspended. Every kilogram of scandium leaving China must pass through the full licensing apparatus.
February 2026 quotes for scandium oxide (Sc₂O₃, 99.99%) from established Chinese manufacturers quoted delivery timelines of approximately four months. The breakdown:
| Phase | Duration | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Quote and order confirmation | 1–2 weeks | Supplier verifies buyer credentials |
| Production and QC | 3–4 weeks | 4N purity requires multiple separation passes |
| MOFCOM licence application | 2–3 weeks | Supplier prepares documentation |
| MOFCOM review period | Up to 45 working days | Statutory maximum under dual-use regulations |
| Customs clearance and freight | 1–2 weeks | Standard international logistics |
The 45-working-day statutory review period is the critical bottleneck. In practice, MOFCOM may request supplementary documentation — end-user certificates, end-use declarations, intermediate consignee verification — each request potentially extending the timeline. Suppliers who quoted four months characterised this as an optimistic timeline for a straightforward application.
Scandium’s challenge is compounded by its unique metallurgy. Unlike most rare earths, scandium is not concentrated in ionic clay deposits but dispersed at low concentrations across multiple ore types. Only a handful of Chinese smelters hold MIIT designations for scandium separation, and their combined output is constrained by the frozen heavy rare earth production quota of approximately 19,150 metric tonnes per year.
What February 2026 quotes mean for non-Chinese buyers
Three practical implications emerge from these supplier interactions.
1. The suspension window is a procurement opportunity, not a guarantee. Thulium, holmium, erbium, europium, and ytterbium can currently be exported from China without a MOFCOM licence. This window closes November 28, 2026. Buyers who require these elements should treat the suspension as a time-limited procurement window, not a permanent policy change.
2. Purity requirements determine sourcing strategy. If 3N purity is acceptable, Chinese suppliers offer the fastest and most cost-effective thulium and holmium procurement path during the suspension window. If 4N or higher is required, Western specialty distributors remain the only reliable source — at multiples of the Chinese price.
3. For No. 18 elements, plan four to six months minimum. Samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium exports require MOFCOM licensing with no suspension. Procurement cycles of four months are realistic for uncomplicated applications. Budget six months for first-time buyers or novel end-use declarations.
Based on direct supplier quotation requests placed in February 2026. Timelines reflect specific supplier responses and may vary by manufacturer, element, quantity, and destination country. Regulatory status current as of publication date.